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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Reliability-Based Safety Evaluation of the BISTOON Historic Masonry Arch Bridge
Majid Pouraminian 1
,
 
Somayyeh Pourbakhshian 1
,
 
Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi 2
,
 
Sevil Berenji 3
,
 
Salman Keyani Borujeni 4
,
 
Mirhasan Moosavi Asl 5
,
 
Mehdi Mohammad Hosseini 1
 
 
 
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1
Department of Civil Engineering, Ramsar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ramsar, Iran
 
2
Faculty of Civil and Surveying Engineering, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran
 
3
School of Environment, Enterprise and Development (SEED), University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
 
4
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Lecco, Italy
 
5
Department of Civil Engineering, Salmas Branch, Islamic Azad University, Salmas, Iran
 
 
Online publication date: 2020-04-18
 
 
Publication date: 2020-03-01
 
 
Civil and Environmental Engineering Reports 2020;30(1):87-110
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceer-2020-0008
 
 
Article (PDF)
References (40)
 
KEYWORDS
masonry arch bridge
probability of failure
epistemic uncertainty
sensitivity analysis
Monte Carlo simulation
 
ABSTRACT
This research examines the probabilistic safety assessment of the historic BISTOON arch bridge. Probabilistic analysis based on the Load-Resistance model was performed. The evaluation of implicit functions of load and resistance was performed by the finite element method, and the Monte-Carlo approach was used for experiment simulation. The sampling method used was Latin Hypercube. Four random variables were considered including modulus of elasticity of brick and infilled materials and the specific mass of brick and infilled materials. The normal distribution was used to express the statistical properties of the random variables. The coefficient of variation was defined as 10%. Linear behavior was assumed for the bridge materials. Three output parameters of maximum bridge displacement, maximum tensile stress, and minimum compressive stress were assigned as structural limit states. A sensitivity analysis for probabilistic analysis was performed using the Spearman ranking method. The results showed that the sensitivity of output parameters to infilled density changes is high. The results also indicated that the system probability of failure is equal to p f system =1.55 × 10−3. The bridge safety index value obtained is βt = 2.96, which is lower than the recommended target safety index. The required safety parameters for the bridge have not been met and the bridge is at the risk of failure.
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